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10 segments · 31 companies

Agriculture to the Table

+1.6%chain · 1M

Seeds, fertilizer and machinery support farming; processing, brands and channels reach the table with delayed cost and pricing effects.

  • The Agriculture to the Table covers 10 segments and 31 companies, 1 of them chokepoints.
  • Over the past month the chain's median listed company returned +1.6%, against 0.0% for the S&P 500.
  • The strongest segment is Groceries & foodservice distribution (+8.3%) and the weakest Seeds, fertilizer & machinery (−18.9%), a 27.2-point spread.

The chain, stage by stage

Upstream on the left, end demand on the right. Figures are 1-month returns; the segment shows its median.

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Crops & foodDrinks & alcohol
Energy feedstock
Fertilizer feedstock: natural gas+6.4%
EQT+6.4%
Farm inputs
Seeds, fertilizer & machinery−18.9%
CF−3.6%CTVA−84.2%MOS−28.5%DE−9.3%
Agricultural processing
Grain & oilseed processing−5.3%
ADM−3.6%BG−7.1%
Meat & protein processing+7.9%
TSN+7.9%
Food & beverage brands
Packaged foods & seasonings−2.0%
GIS−8.1%SJM+5.5%MKC−6.3%HRL+0.5%CAG−5.0%CPB−2.0%HSY−0.4%MDLZ+3.6%KHC−2.1%1216.TW+4.0%TR−3.0%
Non-alcoholic beverages+3.6%
KO+4.6%PEP+2.7%
Beer, wine & spirits+7.0%
STZ+12.3%TAP+7.0%Brown-FormanBUD+5.2%
Distribution & retail
Groceries & foodservice distribution+8.3%
SYY+5.1%KR+9.5%WMT+7.0%COST+11.0%
Food demand
Households & restaurant customers
Weight-loss drugs (GLP-1)+3.8%
LLY+8.6%NVO−0.9%

Which segments are leading

Median price return of the listed companies in each segment.

Groceries & foodservice distribution+8.3%
Meat & protein processing+7.9%
Beer, wine & spirits+7.0%
Fertilizer feedstock: natural gas+6.4%
Weight-loss drugs (GLP-1)+3.8%
Non-alcoholic beverages+3.6%
Packaged foods & seasonings−2.0%
Grain & oilseed processing−5.3%
Seeds, fertilizer & machinery−18.9%
S&P 5000.0%
Groceries & foodservice distribution+8.3%
Non-alcoholic beverages+7.0%
Beer, wine & spirits+2.2%
Fertilizer feedstock: natural gas+1.6%
Meat & protein processing−1.5%
Packaged foods & seasonings−4.0%
Weight-loss drugs (GLP-1)−5.8%
Grain & oilseed processing−12.3%
Seeds, fertilizer & machinery−14.4%
S&P 500+4.7%
Grain & oilseed processing+17.1%
Weight-loss drugs (GLP-1)+15.1%
Non-alcoholic beverages+13.3%
Meat & protein processing+8.3%
Groceries & foodservice distribution+5.7%
Seeds, fertilizer & machinery−0.4%
Fertilizer feedstock: natural gas−3.4%
Beer, wine & spirits−4.5%
Packaged foods & seasonings−11.8%
S&P 500+15.8%

Chokepoints

Concentrated, hard-to-replace links that can cap the whole chain.

Seeds, fertilizer & machinery · Mainly mined in Canada, Russia and Belarus

Potash cannot be synthesized and output is concentrated in a few countries; sanctions touch Russia and Belarus, and the US imports most of its supply.

Key numbers

Farm share of each US food dollar11.8¢USDA ERS · Farm share of the food dollar, 2024

Sources

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