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NYSE · MPC · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock analysis

$467.98−1.49%Data as of Oct 21, 2026
  • MPC gained 20.1% over the past month versus 0.0% for the S&P 500, ranking 10th of 497 S&P 500 stocks.
  • Over 12 months it returned +153.8%, 138.0 points ahead of the S&P 500, and trades 3.5% below its 52-week high.
  • In the last 30 days 12 analysts raised earnings estimates and 2 cut; forward EPS moved +33.3% (+112.8% over 90 days).
  • It sits in the Refining & fuel sales segment of the Oil & Gas Supply Chain, where the 1-month median return is +15.8%.
  • The daily chart reads Intermediate uptrend · Upside breakout (since Oct 7, 2026).
Market cap$131.4B
12-month return+153.8%
Forward P/E11.0×
Mean target vs price−5.5%

One-year price with 50- and 200-day averages

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186277368459JanAprJulOct
467.9850-day200-day

Performance vs the market

Total price return against the S&P 500 (SPY) and the median of US stocks in the same sector.

MPC+20.1%
Sector median+2.5%
S&P 5000.0%
MPC+49.9%
Sector median+3.2%
S&P 500+4.7%
MPC+110.7%
Sector median+0.3%
S&P 500+8.7%
MPC+153.8%
Sector median+41.6%
S&P 500+15.8%
1-month rank in the S&P 50010 / 497
3-month rank in its sector · Energy5 / 194

Chart structure

Read by our daily-bar structure engine from swing highs, swing lows and moving averages.

Intermediate uptrend · Upside breakoutConfirmed

Holding since Oct 7, 2026

  • Close above EMA20 above EMA50
  • EMA50 rose over the last ten sessions
This pattern on this stock

70 occurrences in 10 years. The median move over the next 20 sessions was +2.4%, positive 60% of the time, against +2.8% for any day in the same period.

Reference zone, stop and targets for this structureSee the trade plan in Hub ↗

Analyst earnings revisions

Changes to the consensus forward-EPS estimate. Rising estimates mean analysts see more profit ahead.

Forward EPS$57.83
30-day change+33.3%
90-day change+112.8%
Mean target$442.33 −5.5%
Raised (30d) 12Cut (30d) 2

18 analysts cover the stock

Fundamental shape vs peers

Six dimensions on fixed scales. The filled shape is the company; the outline is the peer average.

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ValuationRevisionsMomentumGrowthCashProfit

Ahead of peersCash, Profit

PeersVLO · PSX · DINO · PBF

Where it sits in the supply chain

Oil & Gas Supply Chain · Processing & sales

Explore the full chain map in Hub
Supplied by
Independent E&P+12.3%
EOG+13.2%1 monthOXY+11.3%1 monthDVN+6.3%1 monthAPA+17.3%1 monthCOP+16.3%1 monthFANG+8.9%1 month
Integrated producers+12.1%
XOM+12.2%1 monthCVX+12.0%1 month
Its segment
Refining & fuel sales+15.8%
MPC+20.1%1 monthVLO+15.8%1 monthPSX+13.0%1 month

Refiners turn crude into fuels; product-versus-feedstock spreads matter.

Sells into
Transport, industry & power

Figures are each company's 1-month return; the segment shows its median · Doubler daily batch · company chain maps

Risk profile

Max drawdown, 12M−18.3%
Volatility, 60D35.8%
From 52-week high−3.5%
From 52-week low+189.2%
Trailing P/E16.2×
Forward P/E11.0×

Themes

  • Gas/LNG3M rank 5 / 188
VLOValero EnergyPSXPhillips 66EOGEOG ResourcesOXYOccidental Petroleum CorporatioDVNDevon Energy CorporationAPAAPA CorporationCOPConocoPhillipsFANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.

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